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TREASURY PAPERS
Series One: Papers of the Economic Section, 1941-1961
Part 2: T230/37-73
Part 3: T230/74-109
Part 4: T230/110-145
Publisher's Note
Sir Alec Cairncross
Chancellor, University of Glasgow
and Supernumerary Fellow, St Anthony’s College, Oxford.
Co-Author of The Economic Section, 1939-1961 London, 1989)
This microfilm edition of the Papers of the Economic Section (Public Record Office Class T 230) provides scholars with an opportunity to see the first instance of Keynesian economic principles being applied to a real economy.
Starting in 1941, the British government employed professional economists to advise on economic policy in a group known as the Economic Section. The first four directors were:
- John Jewkes (Jan-Sept 1941)
- Lionel Robbins (Sept 1941-Autumn 1945)
- James Meade (Autumn 1945-April 1947)
- Robert Hall (Sept 1947-1961)
These directors were ably supported by a range of economists including Marcus Fleming, Bryan Hopkin, Russell Bretherton, A Pigou, Christopher Dow, Fred Atkinson and Jack Downie.
John Maynard Keynes was an important direct and indirect influence on the Economic Section. He commented regularly on Discussion Papers and proposals, helping to clarify the correct application of his ideas to real economic issues.
Following on sequentially from Part 1; Parts 2, 3 and 4 of this project cover Treasury Class T 230, piece numbers 37-145. Produced within aproximately the same period as Part 1 (1940-1948) these files address many of the major economic questions of the day.
In Parts 1-2, covering piece numbers 37-109, can be found material covering such subjects as:
- International monetary policy
- The Bretton Woods Conference
- The release of doctors from the armed forces to aid the civilian population
- Economic Surveys for 1946, 1947 and 1948
- Long-term Economic Survey 1948-1951
- Employment policy in the UK
- Tripartite talks on Germany
- Reconstruction Committee
- Investment
- Nationalization of the iron and steel industry
- Mutual Aid
- National debt
- National income and expenditure
- National Insurance
- Plans for transferring certain industries to public ownership
- OEEC long-term planning
Within these files, can be found a wealth of documents addressing, not only general economic conditions and plans, but also specific issues and problems crucial to Britain’s wartime economy and post-war development. There are particularly good individual Preview Papers by leading economists focusing on such topics as:
- Iron and steel - E Akroyd
- Food and agriculture in post-transition year - G L S Shackle
- Raw material imports - R W B Clarke
- National income planning and full employment - R C Tress
- Road haulage and public passenger vehicles- P Chantler
- Construction programme 1951 - D Butt.
- Electricity programme 1946/7-1950/1 - M F W Hemming
- Manpower developments by the end of 1948 - A Reeder
- Marshall Aid
- Investment programmes - C T Saunders
- Coal - M F W Hemming
- Planning estimates of the national income - C T Saunders
- Prospects for UK shipping and shipbuilding - P Chantler
The majority of the documents in Parts 2 and 3 were produced between 1943 and 1948 , but as with Part 1, these later files are arranged in only a broad chronological sequence resulting in a certain amount of overlapping of dates.
Part 4 of this project covers Treasury Class T 230, piece numbers 110-145. As with parts 1-3 of this Series, Part 4 is arranged in only a broad chronological manner, with the result that most of the material is roughly contemporary with that of the first 3 parts of the series (1940-1948). In Part 4, as with the previous parts of this collection, can be found files addressing the variety of problems which afflicted Britain’s war-time economy, and gave government concern for the future. Within Part 4 the main file headings are:
- National wages policy
- Price stabilization
- The effect of air raids on factory production.
- Rationing.
- Inter-departmental Committee on Reparations and Economic Security.
- Commercial policy; Proposals for a commercial clearing union.
- Inter-departmental Committee on Post-war Commercial Policy
- Commercial policy:
- Ministerial Committee on Post-war Commercial Policy
- Post-war Export trade Committee.
- Future British export prospects in connection with increasing world competition.
- Proposed post-war trade collaboration with Allied governments.
- Statistics relating to trade tariffs and preferences.
- Working Party on Expansion of UK Trade with Eastern Europe.
- United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration: Scope and organization.
- Lend-lease general papers
- Termination of Lend-Lease and transitionary period negotiations.
- Economic Section of the Cabinet Secretariat: Discussion papers.
- Economic survey for 1948-52.
Contained within the files in Part 4 are document that look at the range of contemporary economic issues File T 230/143 in particular, contains a wide selection of pertinent Discussion Papers by leading government economists, including:
- The 1949/1950 Programme - J Jukes
- Alternative Methods of Controlling Price - M F W Hemming
- Intra-European Trade and Payments - J M Fleming
- Wages Policy - J Downie
- The Economic Section’s Beliefs - D M B Butt
- Economic Policy in a Recession - J C R Dow and R Hall
- Investment Policy in a Recession - R F Bretherton
- Inflationary Pressure - K Howell
- Conditions for Operating a One World System - M F W Hemming
- How much Investment? - F J Atkinson
- Notes on Central Planning - R Hall and Mr D Allen
- The Problem of Unemployment - J Grieve Smith
By studying these papers, together with the memoranda, minutes, correspondence, forecasts, statistics and comments of the Economic Section, scholars will gain a unique insight into the theories and ideologies of the government economists who played such an important role in the shaping of post-war Britain. The following selections give a flavour of the type of material contained within the collection:
[From T 230/118]
Professor Lionel Robbins,
Offices of the War Cabinet,
Richmond Terrace, SW1
November 20 , 1940
My dear Robbins,
Your letter of the 19 November confirms more expressly what I suspect to be the nature of the present trend of things. I am in strong agreement with what you say and imply; and am doing and will do what I can in that direction.
It seems to me tremendously worthwhile to have really drastic taxation in order to avoid, or at least minimise, the appalling administrative task of general rationing; for that rather than price inflation is, I agree, the more probable alternative in present circumstances. My chief trouble is in fact with Hubert Henderson, who seems to believe, Heaven knows why, that we can excuse ourselves drastic taxation and that, nevertheless, nothing much will happen; and the foolish fellow takes this line although he is, I think, just as much opposed to general rationing as anyone else.
Yours sincerely
J M Keynes
The following extract from a paper written in 1945 by G L S Shackle entitled The Case for a Rising Price Level [from T 230/115], shows the bold policies and unorthodox ideas that the Economic Section were prepared to consider:
“In almost all the official discussions and Ministerial pronouncements of recent years, it seems to be assumed that “the general price level” must be stabilised, that “inflation” must be avoided. Precisely what hardships or injustices, what injury to our total prosperity, what embarrassment to the fulfilment of policy, would be entailed by a rising price level, is seldom analysed or explained. No thought seems ever to be given to the possible advantages of a rising price level...”
“...Is there not a case for throwing off the exaggerated fears of inflation, relaxing the policy of severely fettered prices, and allowing (with suitable direct encouragement of exports) internal prices to be buoyant and encouraging to enterprise?”
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